Alcohol Consumption Expected To Decline Over The Next Decade

The global alcohol industry could be heading into a period of long-term decline, according to a new forecast released by alcohol market research firm IWSR. While alcohol consumption is unlikely to disappear anytime soon, the latest data suggests that people around the world will be drinking less over the next decade, even as the global population continues to grow.

According to a Reuters report, IWSR's first-ever 10-year forecast covering 160 alcohol markets predicts that global alcohol consumption volumes will continue declining until at least 2031. Even by 2035, total alcohol consumption is expected to remain around 1% lower than 2025 levels despite a projected 9% increase in the number of legal-age drinkers worldwide.

Why Are People Drinking Less?

The slowdown follows several years of challenging market conditions for major alcohol companies. After a strong post-pandemic recovery, spirits, beer, and wine producers have faced weaker demand across many markets since 2023. Companies including Johnnie Walker owner Diageo and brewing giant Anheuser-Busch InBev have reported softer sales as consumers adjust their spending habits.

Industry analysts point to several factors driving the decline:

• Rising cost of living and inflation
• Growing health and wellness awareness
• Changing drinking habits among consumers
• Increased popularity of moderation and low-alcohol lifestyles
• The emergence of weight-loss medications, which some researchers believe may reduce alcohol consumption among users

IWSR estimates that by 2035, annual alcohol consumption per person will decline by the equivalent of roughly two bottles of spirits or one case of wine compared to current levels.

Also Read: Gen Z Is Drinking Less Than Previous Generations - Here’s What Studies Show

Traditional Categories Face Pressure

The report suggests that all major alcohol categories, including beer, wine, and spirits, are likely to lose volume over the next decade. However, this does not necessarily mean consumers are abandoning alcohol altogether.

Instead, drinking habits are evolving. Consumers are increasingly experimenting with newer formats such as ready-to-drink cocktails, canned cocktails, premium mixers, and lower-alcohol beverages. These categories have seen significant growth in several developed markets and are expected to continue attracting younger consumers.

Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, noted that producers can no longer rely solely on traditional drinking patterns and will need to adapt to changing consumer preferences.

The Biggest Declines Will Come From Established Markets

Much of the global decline is expected to be driven by mature drinking markets.

IWSR forecasts significant reductions in alcohol consumption across countries such as:

• United States
• China
• Germany
• Japan
• United Kingdom

Together, China and the United States currently account for a substantial share of global alcohol consumption. The report predicts alcohol servings consumed in these two countries could decline by more than 18% by 2035. Similar downward trends are expected across several European and East Asian markets.

India Emerges As A Major Growth Story

While many established markets are expected to contract, India stands out as one of the industry's biggest growth opportunities.

According to the IWSR forecast cited by Reuters, India's alcohol market is expected to grow by approximately 38% over the next decade. This growth would allow India to overtake the United States and become the world's second-largest alcohol market after China by 2032.

The growth is being driven by rising incomes, urbanization, a growing legal drinking-age population, and increasing interest in premium spirits, beer, wine, and ready-to-drink beverages.

Other markets expected to see growth include Mexico, Vietnam, and Colombia, although India remains one of the most significant opportunities for global alcohol companies.

Also Read: Cocktail Trends 2026: What The World Is Drinking Now

Summing Up

The report does not suggest that alcohol consumption is disappearing. Instead, it highlights a shift in how consumers drink.

People are increasingly choosing quality over quantity, exploring premium products, drinking less frequently, and paying greater attention to health and wellness. For producers, future growth may come less from selling higher volumes and more from offering products that align with these changing preferences.

For now, the world's drinking habits appear to be entering a new phase, one where moderation, premiumization, and evolving consumer tastes could shape the alcohol industry far more than sheer consumption volumes.